Macroeconomic impact of mobilizations and displacements due to violence

Abstract

The phenomenon of internal displacement causes both psychological and economic impacts. These impacts can affect macroeconomic variables, influencing the low growth experienced in recent years, without underestimating the amount of money that the government or public sector spends on related programs, diverting funds that could be used to strengthen infrastructure, education programs , health and strengthen the internal economy of the country. The study consists of quantifying the impact of internal mobilizations due to violence on the main macroeconomic variables in El Salvador. The research is exploratory and explanatory. Information on the phenomenon under study was obtained to analyze it and conclude on it. Statistical mathematical models, mainly econometric, were used to search for impacts and relationships between the study variables, as long as the available information allowed it. The results indicate an important impact on consumption, but not on investment and school dropout, derived from violence. In growth, the economically active population, average schooling and the displaced variable are not statistically significant, indicating a null impact on the Gross Domestic Product. The displaced have impacted unemployment and consumption at the macroeconomic level. These impacts must be taken with caution when formulating the conclusions, due to the existing limitations in the information and the assumptions made to distribute the number of displaced people over time.